The Orange Wave: Victoria’s Political Earthquake and What It Means for Australia
Victoria, often dubbed Australia’s most progressive state, is on the brink of a political upheaval that could redefine the nation’s political landscape. The rise of One Nation, a party once dismissed as a fringe protest movement, is now threatening to upend decades of political stability. What’s particularly fascinating is how this isn’t just a story about Victoria—it’s a microcosm of a global trend where populist forces are reshaping democracies. But here’s the kicker: Victoria’s battle isn’t just Labor vs. Liberal anymore; it’s a multi-front war where the orange wave of One Nation is crashing into both sides, leaving no one unscathed.
The Unthinkable Scenario: One Nation as a Major Player
When pollster Kos Samaras first warned union leaders in March that One Nation could snatch a dozen seats in the Victorian parliament, the room was skeptical. Fast forward to today, and those predictions now seem conservative. Trades Hall secretary Luke Hilakari now estimates One Nation could win up to 30 seats—enough to become the second-largest party in parliament. Personally, I think this is where the story gets truly alarming. What many people don’t realize is that this isn’t just about One Nation gaining power; it’s about the collapse of traditional political alliances. If One Nation becomes the dominant coalition partner, it would mark a seismic shift in Australian politics, mirroring the rise of populist movements in the U.S., U.K., and Europe.
Why Victoria? Why Now?
Victoria’s unique circumstances have created fertile ground for One Nation’s surge. The state’s prolonged COVID-19 lockdowns, lasting 262 days, turbocharged far-right activity, as noted by extremism experts Lydia Khalil and Joshua Roose. This period saw an unlikely alliance of anti-vaxxers, QAnon followers, and ordinary citizens protesting vaccine mandates. From my perspective, this convergence of disparate groups into a cohesive movement is a cautionary tale about how societal stress can fuel political extremism. Add to this the economic anxieties of working-class voters—declining wages, rising inequality, and unaffordable housing—and you have a perfect storm for populist appeal.
Labor’s Dilemma: Fighting a Ghost in the Machine
Labor’s challenge is twofold. First, they’re grappling with a party that has successfully rebranded itself as the champion of the working class, despite policies that often harm those very people. As one frustrated Labor official put it, ‘We have a woman backed by billionaires who doesn’t vote for increases in the minimum wage, yet she’s somehow the voice of the working class.’ This raises a deeper question: How did Labor, a party that has governed Victoria for most of this century, lose touch with its core constituency? In my opinion, the answer lies in the party’s failure to address the economic insecurities that have left many voters feeling abandoned.
Second, Labor’s strategy of shifting the focus to what they can do for working people is a smart move, but it may be too little, too late. With just five months until the election, the party is racing against time to reclaim its narrative. What this really suggests is that Labor’s fight isn’t just against One Nation—it’s against its own complacency and the erosion of trust in mainstream politics.
The Liberal Party’s Uncomfortable Bedfellow
The Liberal Party finds itself in an equally precarious position. While they’re urging One Nation supporters to vote for them as the best way to change the government, the reality is that a One Nation surge could decimate their regional seats. Seats like Berwick, Croydon, and Evelyn are already in play, and the Nationals could lose all their seats if current trends continue. What makes this particularly fascinating is the irony: the Liberals’ attempts to court conservative voters may have inadvertently paved the way for their own downfall. If you take a step back and think about it, this is a classic case of political short-termism coming back to haunt a party.
The Broader Implications: A New Political Order?
Victoria’s election is more than a local contest—it’s a bellwether for Australia’s political future. If One Nation succeeds here, it could embolden similar movements in Queensland, New South Wales, and beyond. This raises a deeper question: Are we witnessing the birth of a new political order where anti-establishment forces dominate, or is this a temporary backlash against the status quo? Personally, I think the latter is more likely, but the speed and scale of One Nation’s rise suggest that traditional parties can no longer afford to ignore the underlying grievances fueling this movement.
The Human Factor: Beyond the Polls and Predictions
What often gets lost in these political analyses is the human element. Behind the orange wave are real people—workers, small business owners, and families who feel left behind by globalization, automation, and rising inequality. A detail that I find especially interesting is the role of economic shocks in shaping political allegiances. As Oscar Kapsi-Crutchett points out in his thesis Antidote, these communities are more exposed to economic volatility and thus more susceptible to populist appeals. This isn’t just about politics; it’s about people’s livelihoods and their sense of security.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Opportunity
As Victorians head to the polls in November, the outcome is far from certain. Labor’s Jacinta Allan is framing the election as a fight for working people, while One Nation’s Pauline Hanson is positioning herself as the anti-establishment crusader. The Liberals, meanwhile, are caught in the crossfire, trying to appeal to both conservative and moderate voters. What this really suggests is that the old rules of politics no longer apply. In my opinion, the party that can best articulate a vision for addressing economic inequality and restoring trust in institutions will emerge victorious.
Final Thoughts: A Wake-Up Call for Democracy
Victoria’s election is a wake-up call for all of us. It’s a reminder that democracy is not a given—it requires constant vigilance and engagement. The rise of One Nation is a symptom of deeper societal issues that won’t be solved by political posturing alone. If there’s one takeaway from this, it’s that we need to listen to the voices of those who feel marginalized, not dismiss them as cranks or conspiracy theorists. Because, in the end, their grievances are our collective responsibility. And if we fail to address them, the orange wave won’t just crash over Victoria—it’ll reshape the entire nation.
